Four wins in a row. Thirteen goals in those four games. A new winger who suddenly can’t stop scoring. On paper, this looks like Real Madrid peaking at the right time, with El Clasico at Camp Nou on Sunday night. But form is only half the story. Let’s break down what has changed, what hasn’t, and how much it matters against Barcelona.

From Shaky Start to Four Straight Wins

Mourinho’s return did not start smoothly. Madrid won five and lost two of their first seven league games. They lost 1 to 0 at Real Betis, then lost 2 to 1 to Atletico Madrid right before the international break, which left them six points behind Barcelona.

Since the break, the results have turned. Madrid beat Villarreal 1 to 0 at the Bernabeu, even after Vinicius Junior saw a straight red card. In Rome, they trailed 3 to 1 in the second half and scored three late goals to win 4 to 3. Then they beat Sevilla 4 to 1, with Mbappé scoring twice.

Wednesday’s 4 to 1 win over RB Leipzig showed the most control. Madrid had 65% of the ball and 18 shots to Leipzig’s 11. AFP wrote this week that Madrid are starting to look like a team for the first time since Mourinho arrived.

The Vinicius Twist

Here’s the strange part. Vinicius misses Sunday’s game. He got two matches for violent conduct and two more for his protests after the red card. We looked at his slump earlier this month in Should Real Madrid Sell Vinicius Jr?

Yet Madrid look sharper without him. Goal counted that 9 of Madrid’s 12 goals in their last three matches came with Vinicius off the pitch. Spanish daily AS even reported that people inside the club saw the ban as more of a solution than a problem.

The man filling the gap is Yan Diomande. The record signing from Leipzig failed to score in his first eight games. He now has three goals in his last four. That includes the winner against Villarreal. He is expected to start in the attacking line around Bellingham and Mbappé.

Is Real Madrid Peaking at the Right Time, or Just Riding Mbappé?

Mbappé is the engine. Against Leipzig he scored once and assisted once, and he took more shots than any teammate.

But look closer at the wins. Villarreal was a narrow win with ten men. Rome needed a late comeback. Sevilla and Leipzig both scored late goals too. Madrid conceded five times across the four games. So Real Madrid peaking at the right time is clear in attack. At the back, the picture is less convincing.

Barcelona Arrive With Questions Too

Flick’s side have won all nine of their La Liga matches and sit six points clear. A win on Sunday would stretch the gap to nine points.

But Tuesday hurt. PSG ended Barcelona’s 11 game winning run with late goals from Vitinha and Fabian Ruiz in a 4 to 2 win. AFP also notes Flick has injuries in defence. That fits a worry we raised in Barcelona Season So Far.

Rest matters too. Barcelona played on Tuesday, Madrid on Wednesday. Mourinho already complained that his side lose 24 hours of rest compared to Barcelona.

What This Means for El Clasico

So is this Real Madrid peaking at the right time? The trend says yes. Four wins, thirteen goals, and a clearer shape without Vinicius.

But a Clasico in Barcelona is a different test. Barcelona beat Madrid 2 to 0 there in May. Flick’s side still have a perfect league record. And Madrid keep conceding late. Mourinho himself played down the momentum, saying confidence doesn’t exist for Clasicos.

What to watch on Sunday:

1. Can Diomande give Madrid pace and width without Vinicius?
2. Can Madrid’s back line stay solid for the full 90 minutes?
3. Does the extra day of rest help Barcelona late in the game?

The takeaway: Madrid’s form makes Sunday closer than the table suggests. They sit third, one point behind Atletico and six behind Barcelona. A win cuts the gap to three and reopens the title race. A loss leaves them nine behind before November even starts.