Two months ago, Real Madrid handed Vinicius Jr a new contract until June 2032. Now the Bernabéu boos him, Mourinho starts him on the bench, and a summer signing scores the winner in his place. That puts Vinicius Jr future at Real Madrid back in the spotlight. Should the club cut its losses and sell? Let’s break it down.

The numbers behind the slump

Last season Vinicius scored 23 goals and added 11 assists in 59 games. This season looks very different. According to The Athletic, he managed one goal and three assists in Madrid’s first eight matches. Kylian Mbappé scored eight in the same games.

The chances tell the same story. ESPN tracked his expected goals against Espanyol, Málaga, Inter, Rayo Vallecano and Atlético. He never went above 0.15 in any of them. In plain terms, he is not just missing chances. He is not reaching scoring positions at all.

The derby was the low point. Vinicius touched the ball only 22 times against Atlético. Only Jonathan David touched it less. Mourinho took him off after 54 minutes when Madrid went down to ten men.

Two stars, one wing

Here’s the thing. This is not only about confidence. It is about space.

The Athletic reports that Vinicius and Mbappé both drift to the left. Their heat maps from the derby overlapped again and again. One former member of Madrid’s coaching staff told the outlet the problem will not go away until one of them leaves.

Atlético saw it too. Simeone’s side kept attacking the left flank, where Vinicius and Marc Cucurella play. Simeone confirmed it was the plan.

Mourinho has tried to fix this. His team now defends in a compact shape, with two holding midfielders and much less running asked of his two stars. So far, it has not unlocked Vinicius.

A night that summed up his season

Saturday’s win over Villarreal showed the whole problem in one game. Vinicius started on the bench and came on early in the second half. Ten minutes later, Yan Diomande, signed from RB Leipzig in the summer, scored the only goal.

Then Vinicius thought he had made it two. VAR ruled the goal out because he pulled Nathan Saliba’s hair in the move before it. The referee sent him off for violent conduct. He later apologised to his teammates and fans on Instagram. Mourinho skipped his press conference.

The timing hurts. Madrid face Barcelona on 25 October, and the length of his ban is not yet clear. If it stretches, he could miss El Clásico. Madrid sat six points behind Barça before the weekend, the same rival who beat them on a title night last May.

Vinicius Jr future at Real Madrid: sell or stay?

Selling now makes little sense, and the contract explains why.

ESPN reported that Madrid were open to selling him this summer if talks failed. Arsenal were interested. Instead, the club improved on its earlier offer of around €22 million a year. Clubs don’t give a deal running to 2032 to a player they plan to sell months later.

His record matters too. He has 128 goals in 375 games for the club, 14 major trophies, and goals in two Champions League finals. Fans booed him under Xabi Alonso as well, during the tense spell we covered in Inside Real Madrid’s Season of Strain. Then he bounced back. Between January and early April this year, he scored 12 goals in 20 games.

Form like that rarely disappears. It dips.

What comes next

Mourinho keeps backing him in public. “He isn’t at his best, and he knows it,” he said after the Inter win, while praising his work rate. But the bench on Saturday showed his patience has limits.

What this really means is simple. Vinicius Jr future at Real Madrid depends on the next few months, not the next transfer window. If Mourinho finds him new space away from Mbappé, he can still decide big games. If Diomande keeps scoring, the left wing may belong to someone else.

A sale only makes sense if two things stay broken: his form and his fit with Mbappé. Right now, Madrid have time to find out. They bought that time with the contract. The smart move is to use it.

For readers, one tip. Watch where he receives the ball and how often he touches it in the box. Those numbers will tell you more about Vinicius Jr future at Real Madrid than any transfer rumour.